Sri Lanka: Opportunity not to be missed

Ravi Velloor The Straits TimesPublication Date: 04-11-2009
Four months ago, Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse looked invincible.
He had ended a quarter-century ethnic conflict with a decisive victory over the separatist Tamil Tigers, a seemingly unbeatable force that brooked no rivals.
Earlier this month, his Sri Lanka Freedom Party swept the polls for the provincial council in the Southern province.

But now, his erstwhile alliance partner, the People's Liberation Front (JVP), is out on the streets, demanding he abolish the executive presidency and that he not plan mid-term presidential polls.
The reason is simple: JVP, once a radical left party that now speaks for the chauvinistic Sinhala fringe, fears that a snap poll will deliver the popular Rajapakse a landslide. That would curtail its influence in Sinhala politics, particularly in the matter of a political settlement with the country's Tamil minority.
All the more reason for Rajapakse not to heed its message. Indeed, he should quickly move the other way for he alone is uniquely positioned to win the peace.
First, he must strive to win a two-thirds majority for his party in the coming parliamentary polls. Secondly, he should revive his presidential mandate for another six years. These steps will give him the legitimacy and backing to move swiftly, without the pressures of a multiparty coalition.
The window of opportunity will shrink as memories of the war he prosecuted so successfully begin to fade. Besides, General Sarath Fonseka, the army commander who vanquished the Tigers, is stirring to life as a potential political threat, perhaps egged on by Rajapakse's rivals. The President might want to bear in mind that George H.W. Bush lost to a relatively unknown challenger named Bill Clinton despite leading the United States to victory in the first Gulf War. Clinton's campaign message was simple: "It's the economy, stupid!"
This week, unemployed Sinhalese graduates protested against the lack of jobs. Encouraged by the JVP, students are protesting also against privatising universities.
It doesn't help that Rajapakse is behind his own timetable on returning displaced Tamils to their homes. There are about 250,000 still being held in camps. The resettlement in the Tamil-majority Northern province is an essential piece of the social and political architecture that needs to be put in place for Sri Lanka's economic revival.
If it goes well, rice fields not cultivated for two decades may soon sprout with padi, raising prosperity levels in the battered north. Already, Jaffna fishermen are hauling in 3,000 tons' worth of catch each week, 10 times the level of last year.
The benefits are being felt across the island. As the north and east return to the national grid, cellphone towers are sprouting up and banks are opening new branches in these areas. Meanwhile, a boom in tourism is already visible. Indian back-office companies are scouting to set up outsourcing units on the island. Lower risk premiums make it viable for shipping companies to use Colombo's port for trans-shipments to the Indian sub-continent.
Sri Lanka's military, which showed a take-no-prisoners ferocity in the last stages of the war, is learning that good behaviour on its part gets positive results. Former Tiger cadres are showing an increasing willingness to lead the army to arms caches and hidden mines.
All this spells good news for Sri Lanka. For it to build a strong peace, though, it has to get on its side the thousands of Tamils who live outside the island. Many of these are people who left a quarter century ago in the aftermath of communal riots, particularly in 1983. They remain the most sceptical about the Rajapakse regime.
The divide between the Sinhalese, who are mostly Buddhists, and the largely Hindu Tamils, is wide. Well-intentioned leaders in Colombo have often been stymied by a Buddhist clergy that has not hesitated to back violence.
There are also unresolved issues within the Sinhala majority - as, for instance, the perception that the Rajapakse clan, which is from the southernmost tip of the island, are interlopers in Colombo, where power has traditionally resided with key families from the central districts.
All these are valid grounds to temper one's optimism about the teardrop island. Still, for all the risks that a bravura attack by Tiger remnants could set back the reconciliation by years and provide a handle to those who want a more militarised state, there is reason for optimism about Sri Lanka.
Unlike India, whose freedom struggle helped develop an 'Indian-ness' across the land, Sri Lankan political identities have tended to develop along the lines of religion and language.
If Rajapakse follows through on his intention to ensure that the two races learn a bit of each other's language, as well as English, the common threads will start growing within a generation. Residual suspicions about the Tamil minority will ease once rising economic opportunities create more space.
India's seven north-eastern states, whose populations tend to have Chinese features in many parts, used to be estranged from the heartland for decades. But these days, people from the north-east can be spotted as airline cabin crew, in hotels, retail stores and bookstores across India. Some have even turning up in cities such as Coimbatore in the far south.
Sri Lankan Tamils have the added advantage that more than half of them have actually lived alongside the Sinhala majority all these years.
Sri Lanka's national flag depicts a sword-bearing lion. If handled well, that lion stands a good chance of becoming the next Asian tiger.